Chilean miner Antofagasta plc (ANTO.L) reported a modest 1% increase in copper production for the September quarter, as global copper markets remain tight but largely stable.
The company produced 161,800 metric tons of copper during the three months to September, taking year-to-date output to 476,600 tons — a 2.8% rise from the same period in 2024, according to a Reuters report.
Despite the quarterly uptick, Antofagasta expects full-year production to land at the lower end of its 660,000–700,000-ton guidance range.
The miner, which operates four mines in Chile, continues to face cost pressures and the challenge of expanding capacity to meet rising demand from power, construction, and clean energy sectors.
The company’s steady production comes amid firmer copper prices, supported by sustained demand from renewable energy technologies and ongoing supply constraints in major producing nations.
Capex guidance cut to $3.6 billion on peso weakness
Antofagasta also trimmed its capital expenditure forecast for the year to $3.6 billion from $3.9 billion previously, attributing the revision primarily to the devaluation of the Chilean peso.
Analysts at Citi noted that the company’s revised spending plans for 2025 appeared to reflect a timing shift rather than a reduction in overall investment.
“The capex guidance for 2025 is revised… which we see as being deferred for spending in 2026,” Citi said in a note.
The move highlights Antofagasta’s cautious stance on capital deployment amid currency fluctuations and shifting market conditions, even as it remains committed to long-term growth initiatives, particularly at its Los Pelambres mine.
2026 outlook points to supply constraints
Antofagasta even sees production in 2026 exceeding 650,000 tons and approaching 700,000 tons, thanks to new levels of output at Los Pelambres in the coming years.
But analysts cautioned the miner’s conservative outlook could highlight wider supply issues within the global copper market.
Citi referred to the company guidance as indicative of sustained global supply tightness, commenting: “A low guidance (for 2026) from one of the best-run mining operations is likely to be yet another signal of tightening supply for the global copper market.”
The comments illustrate a wider anxiety amongst investors and market players: Miners have not been rushing to plot hikes, despite record or neo-record quotes, as they face inflationary pressures, permitting obstacles and geological issues.
Copper prices are nearing record highs
Copper prices topped $11,000 per ton on October 9, approaching the all-time high of $11,104.50 established in May 2024.
The ongoing price strength is due to a combination of strong demand and limited supply, as well as market predictions that the global energy shift would continue to increase metal consumption.
The price movement has brought some respite to producers like Antofagasta, offsetting cost challenges and currency obstacles.
However, economists believe that even high pricing may not immediately translate into quick production increases, as corporations remain wary of overextending in unpredictable markets.
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