The US seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker this week could worsen Cuba’s already shaky energy situation.
The Communist-run island is beset by persistent fuel shortages, causing rolling blackouts that linger for hours every day.
Cuba mostly depends on Venezuelan crude and refined merchandise to sustain its precarious electrical grid. A lot of this fuel comes on small ships and a shadow tanking fleet working under sanctions.
According to analysts and shipping data, a large part of the island’s needs come from Venezuela.
And yet that supply chain is now exposed, with the tanker’s seizure raising the potential for more sweeping US enforcement actions.
If this week’s interception leads to a return of the new trend, with Washington preparing additional sanctions and tanker confiscations, Cuba may face catastrophic consequences.
Sources familiar with the issue said to Reuters that the US is anticipating further interceptions in the upcoming weeks, a plan that could limit fuel access out of Venezuela.
A supply line under threat
Between January and November, Venezuela exported 27,000 barrels per day of crude and fuel to Cuba, down from 32,000 barrels per day the previous year, according to internal PDVSA papers and shipping statistics.
According to Jorge Pinon, who analyses Cuba’s energy infrastructure at the University of Texas in Austin, these cargoes account for about half of the country’s oil deficit, or about one-quarter of total demand.
Pinon fears that the island’s position could quickly deteriorate. Without Venezuela’s contribution, which is already under jeopardy due to sanctions, Cuba’s imports would plummet considerably worse.
Mexico has decreased its own exports to the island this year, and expectations for a large Russian supply have not materialised.
“Now that Mexico is sending less oil and the Russian supply in large quantities has not materialised, I just don’t see any other alternatives,” Andrei Pinon stated. “Times are tough and are going to get tougher.”
The tightening US attitude, exacerbated by President Donald Trump’s pressure campaign against Nicolas Maduro, has sent shockwaves across the marine sector.
Vessel owners, operators, and shipping agencies are reconsidering their scheduled departure from Venezuela, according to Reuters, due to concerns about becoming targets of US prosecution.
Political fallout and strategic manoeuvres
The Cuban government responded strongly to the recent tanker seizure.
President Miguel Díaz-Canel condemned the action on X as “an act of piracy, a violation of International Law, and an escalation of aggression against that sister nation.”
With financial pressure due to the US trade embargo dating back to Cold War days, Cuba has sought innovative means to acquire fuel for decades. The methods have changed as sanctions grew stricter.
According to satellite images analysed by TankerTrackers.com, the Skipper, the vessel seized this week, had offloaded some of the Venezuelan crude oil cargo prepared near the Caribbean island of Curaçao to another tanker on an apparent route to Cuba.
According to Reuters, this follows a pattern of third-party-owned supertankers lifting Venezuelan crude under common charterers, diverting to the Caribbean to bleed off oil for a Cuba-doomed vessel, and then travelling to China with bulk cargo.
The specifics of these cargo-sharing agreements are opaque. Cuba has long provided security and intelligence services to Maduro, but it is not clear how that fits into the current fuel exchanges.
At the same time, several of the Russian naphtha cargoes have been split between Cuba and Venezuela this year, with tankers carrying parcels to each country in turn to make the most of a limited fleet.
Searching for energy alternatives
Cuba has announced plans to speed the development of new solar parks as part of a larger strategy to diversify its energy sources.
However, officials concede that the island’s outdated oil-fired power plants will continue to require fuel, limiting the short-term impact of renewable projects.
As US pressure grows and Venezuela’s ability to send oil to Cuba faces fresh dangers, the island’s long-standing energy crisis risks worsening, leaving few options for a country already fighting to stay afloat.
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