Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL) is in focus ahead of the giant’s Q4 earnings scheduled for Feb. 4 (after the bell), with many expecting the multinational to showcase that it’s firing on all cylinders.
Analysts are bracing for a blockbuster, with revenue projections hovering around a whopping $111 billion – a double-digit leap fuelled by a relentless AI-integrated search engine and a surging Cloud division.
The tech titan is expected to earn $2.58 a share in the fourth quarter, also up an exciting 20% YoY.
Yet, beneath this veneer of record-breaking numbers lies a more treacherous reality. While Google stock has historically defied gravity, it’s not immune to volatility, having shed nearly a third of its value in just eight weeks in 2022.
As we move deeper into 2026, three looming structural and competitive shadows threaten to turn this victory lap into a defensive marathon.
The ad-tech breakup could hurt Google stock
The most immediate threat to Alphabet’s advertising empire is a potential structural earthquake.
Following Judge Leonie Brinkema’s landmark ruling that Google wielded an illegal stranglehold on advertising technology, the market is bracing for a final decision on remedies in early 2026.
The Department of Justice is aggressively pushing for a full-scale divestiture of the Google Ad Manager suite, which wouldn’t be a minor amputation only; the segment accounts for roughly 12% of its total revenue.
Losing this tightly integrated “ad stack” would shatter long-standing synergies between buyers and sellers, likely resulting in GOOGL stock multiple to significantly compress.
Investors who have enjoyed the benefits of a closed ecosystem may soon find themselves holding shares of a significantly more fragmented and less profitable entity.
GOOGL shares face search monopoly erosion in 2026
Alphabet’s crown jewel – its search dominance – is also facing an unprecedented siege in 2026.
Recent court mandates have stripped away the “moat” of exclusive distribution deals, effectively ending Google’s status as the untouchable default on Chrome, Android, and Apple devices.
Over the next few quarters, the enforced sharing of proprietary search data with rivals will further level the playing field.
This regulatory “data tax” is a goldmine for agile competitors like OpenAI and Perplexity – who are already seeing market shares creep upward as they leverage these newly accessible insights.
As the cost of acquiring users rises and the distinctiveness of Google’s algorithms fades, the traditional search monopoly is being chipped away, one query at a time, threatening the very core of Alphabet’s cash flow and – by extension – Google’s shares’ momentum.
YouTube’s dominance in engagement is diminishing
Finally, while YouTube remains a cultural giant, its grip on the “attention economy” is visibly slipping.
The platform is struggling to keep pace in the high-stakes world of creator engagement, where TikTok has emerged as the undisputed king of short-form stickiness.
Current benchmarks suggest TikTok’s engagement rates are roughly five times higher than those seen on traditional social platforms, leaving YouTube’s long-form content feeling increasingly sluggish to younger demographics.
As advertiser dollars follow the eyeballs, the shift toward hyper-effective, short-form monetization models could see YouTube’s ad revenue growth stall by late 2026.
Without a radical reinvention of how it rewards creators and captures fleeting attention spans this year, YouTube risks being relegated to a secondary screen in an increasingly fast-paced digital landscape.
This could also make it increasingly difficult for GOOGL shares to replicate their outperformance in 2026.
The post Google earnings preview: record profit expected, but 3 red flags remain appeared first on Invezz
